Thank you very much. Of course I want to thank the organizers of the Forum for inviting me in this distinguished panel. I think many of the points I will touch upon in my presentation have already been made in the preceding presentations, I want to leave some very brief and simple messages in particularly focusing on gas. I understand that IEA is well known. The hurricane here may be refers to hurricane Rita in which the IEA was helpful in readdressing its impacts on markets by releasing 2 million barrels a day on the market but also it may be a reference to the building turmulance that previous speakers have already referred to and the rhetoric between the US, Russia and the EU on issues of market structure, monopolies in Russia and open markets in the EU and among IEA member countries such as Turkey.

Now, where does the Caspian sit in this equation and indeed what is Turkey’s role in the global context in helping Caspian and Central Asia to fulfill its role? Now on oil we already heard a lot and clearly it is in a very important area that possesses huge mineral wealth that has to be brought to world markets and here again Turkey has been extremely helpful and making that happen with EU and US policy and some of the companies here bringing projects like BTC on line. Clearly diversity of oil and gas supply is what is needed to serve world markets better and to ensure that competitive market forces maintain their governance of markets and that monopoly prices and other negative do not impact consumers or global economic growth too adversely. Now clearly in oil there’s been a lot of progress, Central Asia has risen from land-locked area and is moving forward to central stage and I really appreciated the comments made by the previous speakers on that. We see here in the blue the new pipe line roots, the Caspian pipeline consortium, the BTC, the Baku-Supsa that is not mentioned anymore but was one of the first pipelines coming out of the region, clearly the Black Sea is going to be awash with further oil and that put pressure on the Bosphorus that is indeed also concerning Turkey and his excellency by passes are being considered, Samsun-Ceyhan but also Bulgos-Alexandropulos. In oil IEA believes that things are moving forward very successfully. Another very interesting development is of course the role of Asian markets under the construction of pipeline by the CNPC and Casmona Gaz between Atasu and Alasanku. Opening up very much like the Baku-Supsa pipeline did some time ago, the Eastern market perspective. So on oil I think there are many issues that can be raised but overall the trend looks positive.

On gas, we are somewhat more concerned and we believe that in particular for Central Asia as opposed to Azerbaijan to bring its resources to global markets still a lot of work has to be done also to instill market disciplines in this area and hedge against monopoly risk. We seen also in Russia because of well sited reasons investment has been lagging and this has resulted in a growing dependence on Central Asian gas by Russia but also on the policy point of view re-assessment of Central Asia’s role in serving diversity of supply to IEA member countries and this again then reemphasizes the role that Turkey has to play in serving as an energy hub and facilitating gas supply not only from Azerbaijan but also east of Caspian where resources from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will be very important to draw upon. Of course this is a very complex issue, it is not straightforward and it does indeed marry diversity of supply issues with very important governance issues as far as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are concerned. But indeed the negative developments and the rhetoric we hear today may in fact provide next incentive to like as with oil diversify further the gas supply that Central Asia holds towards Western markets but also Asian markets. Also I think the continuing price rises in the OECD-Europe area may merit some reassessment of the economics of these roots such as trans Caspian routes that have been studied before but abandoned because of the weak economics interlay. These economics now seem to be more beneficial and accommodating to these projects in addition to strategic concerns. Again here China India the BRICs are beginning to move much more investment into Central Asian area. Because it seems the agreements of Turkmenistan gas pipelines and also Kazakhstan is considering further gas experts to the Chinese markets. So this dash for gas which is very much also climate driven means that major investment will take place in Central Asia both to serve Asian markets and OECD European markets.

Another issue I think is that on the heels of the gas upsets that we have witnessed at the beginning of this year, the shift to LNG and further diversified supply away from cross border pipelines may be somewhat more sharper then we had originally predicted. LNG of course is in some assessments more flexible mechanism to supply markets and I think this is where I basically like to leave it and then I hope I’ve in this presentation addressed these questions you raised but I am also very happy to answer to the questions from the floor to panel. Thank you.



I just wanted to echo the point made by Charles Bland responding to the dangers or negative sides of gas usage. I also wanted to again emphasize that really market structure is the issue that is at stake. If there is open liberalized market structure such as for instance enshrined in the energy charter to which Turkey and Central Asian countries are all ratifying members, those negative sides of price increases because of monopoly formation would be mitigated. An important event has been announced by Claud Mondeal the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency inviting together with presidents a meeting in Tiblisi to discuss these gas market issues in which of course we hope that Minister Güler will be able to participate and further address this issue as we had it up to the GA’s and that is just the point I wanted to make.